Live on Chia Mainnet

Prediction Markets,
On Chia

Trade on real-world outcomes using CAT tokens and smart contracts. Built with Rue, verified on-chain, powered by Dexie DEX. Currently in Phase 1 with trusted oracle.

Explore Markets ↓ View Source Code
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Markets Resolved
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Tokens Minted
Phase 1
Trust Model
100%
On-Chain
Live Markets
Trade Your Conviction
Each market issues YES and NO CAT tokens. Prices reflect the crowd's probability estimate. All settlements are verified on-chain.
Past Markets
Settlement History
Resolved and test markets showing how the protocol handles different outcomes.
How It Works
Four Steps to Prediction Trading
From market creation to settlement — everything happens on Chia's blockchain with full transparency.
1

Market Creation

Creator defines a question with deadline, mints equal YES/NO CAT tokens, locks XCH in a Rue smart contract puzzle for redemption.

2

Trading on Dexie

YES and NO tokens are listed as standard Chia offers on Dexie DEX. Traders exchange XCH for tokens representing their predictions.

3

Oracle Resolution

When the event occurs, the designated oracle signs the outcome with BLS cryptography. The signature is verifiable by anyone on-chain.

4

Winner Redemption

Holders of winning tokens present them to redeem XCH from the smart contract. Losing tokens become worthless. No oracle can prevent redemption.

Economics & Transparency
How The System Works
Full transparency about fees, risks, and economic mechanisms. We believe in informed participation.

💰 Revenue Model & Fees

The house makes money through trading spreads, not by taking directional bets:

  • Initial offers: Posted at 50¢/50¢ (10-20% edge via spread)
  • Market creation: Currently free during Phase 1
  • Resolution fee: May implement 5% fee in future versions
  • Trading fees: Standard Chia transaction fees only
Example: 1M token market. House posts offers at 45¢ YES / 45¢ NO. If perfectly balanced, house collects 100k mojos (10%) while providing 900k mojos liquidity.

🧮 Token Economics

Each token represents a claim on future XCH:

  • Token value: 1 winning token = amount locked ÷ total supply
  • Current markets: ~1000 mojos per token (at XCH = $3.26)
  • Supply: Fixed at creation, typically 1M tokens per side
  • Backing: XCH locked in smart contract equals total supply
Calculation: If you buy 1000 YES tokens at 500 mojos each (cost: 0.5 XCH) and YES wins, you redeem for ~1000 mojos total. Profit depends on outcome probability vs price paid.

⚠️ Risk Disclosure

Understand the risks before participating:

  • Oracle trust: Single trusted oracle can resolve incorrectly (Phase 1 limitation)
  • Smart contract risk: Bugs in Rue puzzle could lock funds
  • Market risk: Prices can be wrong; you can lose 100% of investment
  • Liquidity risk: Limited trading volume on some markets
Phase 1 Reality: If oracle disappears or refuses to resolve, funds could be locked forever in v1 puzzles. v2 puzzles have timeout recovery mechanisms.

🔍 On-Chain Verification

Every claim is verifiable on Chia's blockchain:

  • Market creation: CAT minting transactions on Spacescan
  • Fund locking: XCH deposits to puzzle addresses
  • Oracle signatures: BLS signatures in spend bundles
  • Redemptions: Winning token burns + XCH payouts

Check any market's verification links below for complete transaction history. No trust required beyond reading the blockchain.

Protocol Architecture
Built Different
Chia's coin-set model enables prediction markets with properties impossible on account-based chains.
⚡

Rue Smart Contracts

Market logic compiled in Rue, Chia's high-level language. Each puzzle validates oracle signatures and controls XCH redemption. Deterministic and auditable.

🔗

CAT Token Standards

YES/NO positions are standard Chia Asset Tokens (CATs) with single-issuance TAILs. Freely tradeable on any Chia DEX without special integration.

🔐

BLS Signature Oracles

Oracle resolution uses BLS signatures over market_id + outcome. Signatures are validated by the puzzle itself, not external contracts. Replay-resistant.

🛡️ Trust Model Evolution

We're honest about our current trust assumptions and roadmap toward decentralization:

1

Phase 1: Trusted Oracle

(Current) Single oracle operated by ChiaPredict team. Oracle can resolve any outcome. Full on-chain verification of signatures.

2

Phase 2: Multi-Sig Oracle

(Future) M-of-N community oracle using BLS signature aggregation. Requires consensus of trusted parties to resolve markets.

3

Phase 3: Decentralized Oracle

(Vision) Stake-based oracle network with slashing conditions. Anyone can participate with economic skin in the game.

What the oracle CAN do: Resolve any outcome, delay resolution indefinitely.
What the oracle CANNOT do: Steal funds, prevent valid redemptions, change market terms post-creation.

Frequently Asked Questions
Everything You Need to Know
Common questions about participating, risks, and how the protocol works.
How do I participate in a market?
Visit any market's Dexie links and use a Chia wallet (Sage, Goby) to take offers. You'll exchange XCH for YES or NO tokens representing your prediction. When the market resolves, winning tokens can be redeemed for XCH.
What happens if the oracle disappears?
In v1 puzzles, funds could be locked forever. In v2 puzzles, there's a timeout mechanism that allows the market creator to reclaim funds after a specified block height. This is why we're evolving toward multi-sig and decentralized oracles.
How are market outcomes determined?
Currently, the ChiaPredict team acts as the oracle and resolves markets based on publicly verifiable facts. We commit to honest resolution based on objective criteria. Future versions will use community consensus or automated data feeds.
Can I verify everything on-chain?
Yes! Every market has verification links to Spacescan showing: CAT creation transactions, XCH locked in puzzles, oracle signatures in resolution spends, and redemption transactions. The entire lifecycle is transparent.
What are the fees?
Currently no market creation fees. Trading only costs standard Chia transaction fees. The house makes money through trading spreads (difference between initial YES/NO offer prices). Future versions may add small resolution fees.
Why Chia instead of Ethereum?
Chia's UTXO model eliminates MEV/front-running, has no public mempool, and costs pennies in fees. BLS signatures enable efficient oracle aggregation. The coin-set model makes prediction markets naturally isolated and composable.
How do I know the smart contracts are safe?
All Rue puzzle code is open source. The logic is auditable: oracle signature validation, token verification, and XCH redemption. However, smart contract risk exists - bugs could lock funds. Start with small amounts until you're comfortable.